Forum FAQSearch


Previous topic | Next topic
Page 2 of 3 [ 21 posts ]
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Post new topic Post a reply
Print view

July 2013

Re: July 2013


Thu Jul 21, 2011 5:06 pm Post
Image
Shake up in Pyongyang as North Korea returns to normality

Image
Kim has stern words with border agents

The punishments have started to pour down upon those who were involved in the uprising against Kim Jong-Un and Kim Jong-Il on behalf of Kim Kyong-Hui. Restored to Pyongyang the North Korean dictator and his son have been quick to repeal any legislation which had been passed by the Kyong-Hui régime which had attempted to remove loyalists from the higher echelons of power and install lesser known family members to positions of influence.

It had been expected that Kim Kyong-Hui would have died in the battle for Pyongyang but as reason and peace triumphed over hot-headed requests for warfare a different fate awaits Kyong-Hui and her husband Chang Song-taek. They have been stripped of all titles and privileges and have been put under house arrest by the Kim régime. It has been announced that Kim Jong-Il “no longer considers Kyong-Hui to be part of the Kim family” after her “unpardonable actions” and subsequently she now faces a retirement in obscurity. The long term DPRK head of state, Kim Yong-Nam has also been punished for allowing Kim Kyong-Hui to take hold of Pyongyang politically as well as militarily. He has retired with full honours after having served as the head of state since 1998. He is replaced by Pak Ui-Chun, the former DPRK Foreign Minister who is seen as a key Kim Jong-Un ally.

In a rather surprising move it has been announced that the brother of Kim Jong-Il, Kim Pyong-Il and his son, Kim In-Kang, have been banished from the DPRK. They are expected to take up the residence which has been vacated by Kim Jong-Nam in Macao after he has returned to favour in government circles, appointed as the new Foreign Minister. He had fallen out of his father’s favour due to an attempted visit to Disneyland Japan in May 2001 but it seems that the Kims are ready to give him another chance. Forgiveness has also come to Kim Jong-Chul who has been back in the DPRK for two years, attending to Kim Jong-Il. He has been appointed as a General of the Korean People’s Army and now has a seat in the Presidum, replacing Kim Kyong-Hui. Kim Jong-Il’s daughter, Kim Sul-song has also been appointed to a government position within the ministry of propaganda – ensuring that traitors shall be painted in the worst of lights by the refreshed DPRK régime.

The fall of such a high-ranking Kim Jong-Il loyalist like Kim Yong-Nam has raised eyebrows amongst North Korea watchers and has added further credence to rumours that Kim Jong-Il has passed away. However, a public appearance has been made by Kim Jong-Il on the border where he berated officials for a “dereliction of duty” and praised those who had “shot down traitors” who attempted to cross the border. Kim Jong-Il revealed that after discussions with China all DPRK citizens who had escaped from the country-side (or indeed, the state’s “re-education facilities”) would be returned. Pressure is mounting for the South Koreans to make the same pledge; although Kim Kyong-Hui had asked for a revocation of the Inter-Korean treaty Kim Jong-Un announced that “terror does not govern the future of North East Asia” and that subsequently the “treaty stands”. This would imply that should South Korea wish to maintain the relations with the North that Kim Jong-Un has negotiated his way out of a civil war for, they would be hard pressed to not return these refugees.

The United States and Western nations have been notably quiet on the issue, though Japan has offered to give aid to South Korea should South Korea protect the refuges.
Last post


Re: July 2013


Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:25 pm Post
Image

Whither now, America?

Image

A wave of unease has spread across the United States of America following the completion of Russian operations against Romania. The population of America, which has been noted as the worlds 'policeman' for the past two decades, are stunned at the speed of the Russian offensive and the complete abandonment of Romania by the nations that were once her allies.
The years following what has become known as 'Obama-gate', the leaking of information revealing the former US President to be responsible for Chechen uprisings in Russia, American prestige has plummeted across the globe and in Europe the mood has turned from co-operative to hostile as the EU seeks to solidify internally and without what is now being seen as 'American interference'.
Even when Russia expanded into Belarus, and asserted its control in Kazakhstan, the rift between Europe and America seemed only to widen, coming to the fore with President Powells unilateral decision to leave NATO, which was recently rejected by Congress.
The isolationist movement in America which has grown in recent years has found its potential membership wavering, we talked to one American citizen who wished to remain anonymous:
"Well, I see little point in staying in Europe, I mean it's like they don't remember all the favours we've done for them over the past sixty years, but at the same time I dunno if I wanna live in a world which is dominated by Russia, China and Iran. I mean, it's like there's no-one to stop them, they've gone from being like three different nations working together to some kind of global powerhouse in just three years...and there's just no stopping them."
Many are quick to blame the decline in American global dominance on Barack Obama and 'Obamagate', however others are a little less emotional on the subject, a professor from Harvard spoke to us on the subject:
"I think, personally, that this was inevitable. We have seen over the years many great empires come and go, they've risen to the forefront of global politics, or regional politics and then they have faded away, some have gone quietly and others have gone out in a blaze of violence and disorder. Many people predicted that the twenty-first century would see the end of the dominance of America and the beginning of the dominance of China, and it is panning out that way. Many people want to blame Obama-gate for this, but this was set in motion many years ago with our gigantic debt crisis and our overstretched military. We've gotten used to a lifestyle when we can get what we want, when we want it and pay for it when we want to...and now all our birds are coming home to roost. Our opulence, like that of the Romans, has proven to be our downfall...and now the Chinese, Russians and Iranians, like the tribes of Europe, have smelt blood in the water and have set in motion their plans for regional...and potentially...global dominance. Short of World War Three, there will be little to stop them from doing so."
World War Three was exactly what was threatened by President Powell to President Medvedev recently according to QNN sources in the political channels, with President Powell threatening to send tanks to Moscow, however all that actually transpired was the transfer of fifteen squadrons of fighter jets to Romania, which did little to affect the inevitable outcome of the Moldovan war. Whilst widespread public opinion was against war with Russia and RICH, many in America approved of President Powells strong stance against Beijing, Moscow and Tehran and were disappointed when nothing else transpired.
"It's just another nail in Americas coffin," said one bystander in New York "We have lost our ability to lead, we need a president with balls who is going to stand up to RICH and so no, no further. After all, RICH doesn't want a war, China can't afford one for one thing, their whole economy would collapse...someone has to draw the line somewhere...or we'll be kowtowing to Tehran before this decade is out."
As news breaks of the Cuban Politburo discussing the proposal by President Valdés of Cuba to sign the 'Pact of Liberty' and join RICH, it seems to many in the United States of America that President Powell must now decide what part the US will play in this new world order.


Re: July 2013

Offline
Qpawn Admin

Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 11:45 pm
Posts: 1777
QpawnID: Wakizashi
Profile 
Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:38 pm Post
Vietnamese Police Arrest More Than a Dozen Anti-China Protesters
Image

Police in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, on Sunday arrested more than a dozen protesters denouncing Beijing's actions in the South China Sea. The demonstrators were hauled away on buses after a brief demonstration near the Chinese embassy. Another group of protesters later gathered there, but police in riot gear dispersed them.

Demonstrators accuse China of violating Vietnam's territorial waters and harassing Vietnamese fishermen. This was the latest in a series of Sunday protests against China in Vietnam's capital. The communist authorities do not normally permit street demonstrations.The first few anti-China protests ended peacefully. But on Sunday July 10, authorities briefly detained several people, including journalists. Rights groups have criticized Vietnam for arresting the protesters.

Last month, officials from Vietnam and China met in Beijing to discuss the maritime dispute and said they had agreed resolve their differences peacefully. Vietnam says Chinese boats have hindered oil exploration within its economic exclusive zone, 300 kilometers off the coast.


Re: July 2013


Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:46 pm Post
Image

Cypriot government falls following fire disaster

Image

At least 12 people were killed today when a depot at the main naval base on Cyprus, containing confiscated arms from the Middle East, exploded sending shock waves across surrounding villages. Initial reports indicated a brush fire crept into the arms depot on the Evangelos Florakis Naval Base, on the southern coast of the island near the town of Zygi. It set light to gunpowder stored there since being confiscated in December 2012 from a Cypriot flagged ship, the Monchegorsk. The explosion killed two sailors, four soldiers from the National Guard and five firemen, and it was thought the death toll would rise. Amongst the dead was Captain Andreas Ionnides, the head of the Cypriot Navy.

As a result Cypriots have taken to the streets, calling for the resignation of the government. Dressed in black and carrying candles they called Demetris Christofias “criminally negligent” to have ignored German, French and American offers to remove and dispose of the munitions. With information which has come to light following wikileaks disclosures it became apparent that President Christofias could not continue in his role following a range of requests by the armed forces being ignored by the President. As the news became clearer a crowd of around three hundred protesters stormed the Presidential Palace, entering the grounds, and were not stopped by guards who are supposed to protect the President. Eventually the President managed to escape and made an impassioned speech to Parliament, this was to be to no avail and in order to prevent any damage being done to public order in Cyprus at a time where war looms in the region.

An election shall now be held to determine both the new President of Cyprus and to the House of Representatives. It is believed that the Democratic Party could end its time in the electoral wilderness with a victory in these elections but in order to govern it may be forced into a coalition with the far-right National Popular Front (a pro-Enosis party) which has seen a surge in popularity in recent months following the Kurdistan crisis with many suggesting that the Greek Cypriots should take advantage of a weak Turkey to “unify Cyprus by arms”. The Democratic Party remains committed to peace, but will this stance win over a Cypriot population that seeks a strong and decisive government following the Christofias administration. It is believed that around 42% of the Greek Cypriot population would support a war to remove the Turks from the island.

Cypriot opinion poll
Democratic Rally (Conservative) – 35%
Progressive Party of Working People (Communist) – 32%
National Popular Front (Nationalist) – 22%
Democratic Party (Centre) – 6%
Movement for Social Democracy – 5%


Re: July 2013


Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:08 pm Post
ImageImageImage

Trouble in former Yugoslavia as Srspka splits from Bosnia Herzegovina

Image
The new President points at a map of his country

There have been ethnic tensions throughout the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina for several months now over the trial of Voljislav Seselj, who has recently been acquitted of war crimes due to a lack of witnesses presenting themselves to prosecutors at the Hague. The Bosniak population has taken this hard and Sarajevo was witness to mass protests demanding that Seselj be imprisoned for his crimes, the Serbians within Bosnia have reacted to this by setting up counter demonstrations and the nation currently finds itself in the midst of a crisis. Seselj has been refused entry into the nation by the Bosnian government, however he has since been able to make his way to Banja Luka. With Bosniaks demanding his arrest there was a stand-off as Federal police travelled to Banka Luka which is the de facto capital of the Republika Srspka, they were prevented from arresting him by Republic Srspka authorities who have declared him a political refugee and granted him asylum from “the Hague and the Sarajevo dictatorship”.

In response to this a debate in the Bosnian Parliament called for an end to the Federal solution within Bosnia Herzegovina and the end to the unique status of the Republika Srpska. President Milorad Dodik of the Republika Srspka had asked that the Sarajevo government put an end to the anti-Srspka demonstrations and threatened a referendum on the status of his nation within the Bosnian Federation. Both Bosniaks and Croats refused to negotiate with the President and said that they would refuse to recognise any referendum, and repeated the demand to turn over Seselj. In response Dodik called for a vote in his Parliament on the temporary separation of the Republika Srspka to a “date which could be found to organise a free and fair referendum without Bosniak or Croat intervention”. The motion was passed with enthusiasm and those who did not join in voting in favour, from the opposition Socialist Party and the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina were arrested. Another motion was then passed in Parliament which asked for the “Serbian brothers” of the Republika Srspka to “counter-act” outside interference in the affairs of the state. Dodik has asked that the European Union and the United States respect the right of the people of his nation to self-determination and has called on President Medvedev of Russia to “stand up for the Serbian people, his friends and allies”.

Four days later the referendum was held. In a vote to declare independence from Bosnia-Herzegovina 82% of voters declared that they were in favour of such an action, with a turn-out of around 67% of the population. The government of Bosnia-Herzegovina suggests that the vote was fraudulent whilst this is denied by the Republika Srspka, the President of the new nation, Dodik, stated that “my people, the people of the Republika Srspka shall not be cowed into submission by the nations which claim to guarantee freedom and democracy. We deserve our freedom too!” It is possible that this new nation shall be short lived and shall soon join together with Serbia, however for now several countries have recognised the Republika Srpska. These nations are; Serbia, Moldova and the PMR – will Russia join them?


Re: July 2013


Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:31 pm Post
Image

US mobilizes reserves, goes to DEFCON 2

Image

In response to recent developments in Cuba and Romania, the Department of Defence has today announced the call up of reservists across America and admitted that US military forces have gone to DEFCON 2. American strategic missile submarines have left port and it is understood that the Air Force Global Strike Command has put its nuclear capable bombers at ten minute alert status. There is no word on the American missile silos however it is understood that many of the men and women in charge of them have been called to duty at the same time as the reservists were mobilised.
Meanwhile in ports across Europe, with the exception of Germany, the UK and Poland, all US naval assets have departed heading west back to America where in Florida exercises have gotten underway based upon amphibious assaults. The goal of the exercise is to occupy an island which is ruled by a leader known as Sedlav, given that most of the naval assets are understood to be heading for the US East Coast it is entirely possible that this is an exercise which is designed to combine with the exercises in Florida, however it is still unclear.
Meanwhile on American television and newspapers, government sources have spoken about the communist regime in Cuba and the regime of Reza Khan in Iran, and about the oppressions of liberty and human freedoms in both nations, President Powell himself has yet to comment on the situation however it is clear that the Powell administration is gathering support for action...but where and against whom?


Re: Russia's Private War


Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:46 pm Post
Image

Russia's Private War
Violent Crackdown on Organized Crime


Image


Moscow --- Organized crime has been a pervasive problem in Russia since the end of the Soviet Union. At first running rampant, many criminal organizations adopted a veneer of legitimacy following the coming to power of Vladimir Putin. Those who refused to play by the rules of the Presidency, however, were often swiftly and violently arrested.

However, much of that has changed in the last three years. Dmitry Medvedev has vastly centralized power in his time as President and, since the abrupt resignation and later assassination of Vladimir Putin, has quietly been expanding the power of the Executive office to look into and fight corruption all across the nation.

After three years of silence, it seems that the Russian government is making it's moves against organized crime, with a series of violent and public arrests and raids on public and private corporations. Sergei Mikhailov, leader of the feared Solntsevskaya bratva, was one of those arrested on charges of racketeering and corruption, while Vladimir Kumarin, alleged leader of the Tambov gang, was found dead in his prison cell last night. Kumarin has been in a Russian prison since 2009, arrested on the orders of Vladimir Putin.
A number of alleged mid-level gangsters, including bookkeepers and local commanders, were also arrested in sweeping arrests across the Russian Federation. The "Office of the Inquisition", a highly-classified body reporting only to the President and tasked with investigating corrupt individuals and alleged criminals, is widely believed to be responsible for the recent slew of arrests.

Anonymous sources have hinted to QNN that the Russian government is actively pursuing Semion Mogilevich, one of the FBI's Ten Most Wanted and widely believed to be "the boss of bosses" in Russia's international criminal underworld. Boris Gryzylov, Minister of Justice, has personally vowed that he "Will not sleep until Mogilevich is caught. Will hang him from post for crimes."


Re: July 2013


Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:19 pm Post
Syrian protesters attack US, French embassies
Image
Image

Hundreds of Syrian government supporters attacked the U.S. Embassy in Damascus Monday, smashing windows and spray-painting walls with obscenities and graffiti that called the American ambassador a "dog." Guards at the French Embassy fired in the air to ward off another group of protesters. "Get out now," protesters wrote on a paper hung on the U.S. Embassy's fence. "The people want to kick out the dog," read graffiti scrawled in red on the wall of the embassy, along with another line cursing America. The protesters smashed the embassy sign hanging over one gate.

Syrian-U.S. relations have been mired in mutual distrust for years. But Monday's attacks were the worst such violence since 2000, when a stone-throwing mob attacked and vandalized the U.S. Embassy and ambassador's residence over American and British airstrikes against Iraq.

Nuland said that Syrian security forces, who are supposed to guard the mission, were slow to respond. After the crowd at the embassy was dispersed, the protesters moved to the ambassador's residence and attacked it, causing unspecified damage, Nuland said. The ambassador's residence is not inside the embassy compound but is nearby.
"We consider that the Syrian government has not lived up to its obligations ... to protect diplomatic facilities and it is absolutely outrageous," she told reporters. There were similar scenes at the French embassy, where guards fired in the air to hold back Assad loyalists who attacked the compound.

The French Foreign Ministry said three embassy workers were injured as "well organized groups" smashed windows and destroyed the ambassador's car. "Faced with the passivity of security forces, embassy security agents were forced to make three warning shots to stop intrusions from multiplying," a French government statement said.
The French flag was removed and replaced with a Syrian one. "God, Syria and Bashar. The nation that gave birth to Bashar Assad will not kneel," read graffiti scrawled outside the embassy. One witness said three protesters were injured when guards beat them with clubs. The witness asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Hiam al-Hassan, a witness, said about 300 people were at the French Embassy while hundreds targeted the American diplomatic compound. "Syrians demonstrated peacefully in front of the French embassy but they were faced with bullets," said al-Hassan.


Re: July 2013

Offline
Qpawn Admin

Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 11:45 pm
Posts: 1777
QpawnID: Wakizashi
Profile 
Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:51 pm Post
Zuckerberg Breaks Through the Iron Curtain
Image
Image
Old Map, from 2010. Experts say a modern map would show a brighter India and Brazil, with a projected map including Russia

Facebook is a modern marvel, having already approached 1.25 billion people in number of verified accounts (with an untold number of fake accounts, troll accounts, and "fan" pages), and it is moving its gaze towards the East. Indeed, Facebook set up a Eastern European branch in Romania a few years ago, and this is where an interesting part comes in: Facebook has regionalized.

With over a billion users, Facebook simply could not retain its unitary structure, and so with its expansion east-ward, federalized in a way that Romanian and Polish communication technology leaders could expand without that pesky American influence, but still use the technology developed in the American Silicon Valley to spice up the Bucharest silicon valley. This is why that Facebook's new strategy is so telling: its different then what other companies have done before, and it may be why that it succeeds where others have failed.

Indeed, other Russian-language versions of American search engines and social networking sites are struggling here. The Russian search engine Yandex trounces the Russian version of Google (which might bother one of Google’s founders, Sergey Brin, who is of Russian descent).

As for social networking sites, Myspace, which entered Russia in January 2008, has attained only small percent of the market. Myspace and Google have had similar fates in China, where the two companies, in addition to the online auction site eBay, have been trampled by local look-alikes. In Russia, the American Internet giants appear to have run into cultural and linguistic barriers. When Google failed to take off here, its designers pointed to its lack of “understanding of Russian.” And social networking sites must master informal slang and local culture to succeed. Anton Nossik, who is widely considered one of the gurus of the Russian Internet as an executive at the Internet company SUP, said that Yandex works better than Google Russia, even for basic searches. Mr. Nossik noted that a search for the Kremlin on Google Maps using the Cyrillic alphabet (“Кремль”) returns with, “We could not understand the location Кремль.”

Yet Facebook's Eastern European branch has none of these problems because its been solving each one on the frontiers. Romania's intrusion into Moldova's Internet market swept up nearly 3 million Moldovans into the Internet, and of these, many still use Cyrllic: Facebook's datacenter in Bucharest solved the problem in May.

Now, Facebook attempted, with little success, to bring the network to Russia in 2008, and failed except for capturing small portions in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Yet this renewed attempt is attempting to capture users from VKontakte, Russia's premier network, not through social engineering, but through sheer force: the social network has begun targeting military soldiers in Tulcea, Kazakstan, the Ukraine and Belarus. The Tulcea region of Romania has a significant Russian minority and of those with internet connections, Facebook is essential. So what has happened as Russians landed there, and speak to the locals? (see: sleep with the locals) Well, Facebook connections have been made, indeed, have been made back into Russia itself. So much, in fact, that after 16 days after Romanian surrender, the number of Russian facebook users has grown by 5 million!

Indeed, the 4 year creeping outwards of Russia is beginning to allow Facebook four years of creeping in.


Re: July 2013


Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:55 am Post
Image

US on Edge as Enemies Circle


The mood across the United States is one of deep concern this month. Enemies appear to be circling on all sides. At the same time, large majorities in the US fault both parties equally for failing to lead and protect America. They cite poor leadership, an inability to conduct the skillful diplomacy that has long been a hallmark of the US, and a paralyzing lack of inaction. The American people presently seem torn between decisive action to end this new threat to the survival of America's position in the world and a concern over becoming embroiled in a new world war. One thing is clear, however. Americans of all backgrounds and political persuasions seem more willing than ever to support leadership from outside Washington and bold thinking to solve America's problems. Unfortunately, there seems to be no bold thinking to be had inside the beltway, at the White House or on Capitol Hill, these days. And that's tonight's memo. Now, let's go to Colin for tonight's special interview guest.

Thanks, Bill. Colin Ferguson here with our special interview guest tonight. George Friedman has spent most of his life attempting to understand the international system and the ways nations interact with each other. He's the founder of STRATFOR, the world's premiere private intelligence firm. Tonight, we're talking China with him, although his ideas certainly fit in the greater East versus West dynamic that we're seeing play out on the global stage.

Quote
Colin: The world is full of pundits who predict that China will, sometime in the first half of this century, overtake the United States as an economic power. The only difference between them is when this will happen. STRATFOR doesn’t believe this will happen and as China’s economy slows down while facing inflation, many others have doubts also. For his latest assessment, we turn to George Friedman, who we welcome back to show.

George, China argues that the United States should treat it as an equal. For the United States, this seems a step too far. Is this a chasm that can be resolved peacefully?

George: The United States doesn’t treat China as an equal or an unequal, it treats it as China. As a country it has interests and those interests may coincide with American interests or they may not. But the United States, and any other country treats any other country as its interests. In many cases, the problem really is that observers of China have bought into the Chinese view that China is a superpower economically, militarily, politically, and therefore the United States should it treat it as such. But the fact is that China is far from a superpower in any of these realms. It remains a relatively weak economic power and certainly a weak military and political power, and the United States treats it as it is: a significant regional power with a great many weaknesses, and when it threatens American interests, the United States is quite happy to slap it back.

Colin: With the possibility of confrontation between the world’s first and second largest economy troubles many countries in the Asia Pacific region. First of all Japan and Korea but also many nations of Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam and a resources giant, Australia.

George: Well I mean it’s interesting that they’re troubled. I must admit that I’ve never understood what it meant for a nation to be troubled—I understand people being troubled. Look, there can’t be confrontation militarily between the United States and China. Firstly because the United States is incapable of intruding on mainland China militarily—it’s a vast population, a large army. And China has no naval capability worthy of the name.

Colin: Now, financial analysts and economists talk up China as an economic power but at STRATFOR we’re doubters. China has slowed down this year, but do we still believe that Chinese growth is unsustainable?

George: The question of Chinese growth is the wrong question. I can grow anything if I cut profit margins to the bone or take losses. According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Chinese profits on their exports are about 1.7 percent, which means that some of these people are exporting at almost no level. The Chinese grow their economy not in the way that Western economies grow that when you sell more products, you make more money. The Chinese grow their economy to avoid unemployment. The Chinese nightmare is unemployment because in China unemployment leads to massive social unrest. Therefore the Chinese government is prepared to subsidize factories that really should be bankrupt because they’re so inefficient in order to keep these companies going. They will lend money to these companies not to grow them but in order to make certain that they don’t default on other loans. So I think one of the mistakes we make is the growth rate of China being the measure of Chinese health. I want everyone to remember that in the 1980s Japan was growing phenomenally and yet their banking system crashed in spite of the fact of having vast dollar reserves. So when you look at the Japanese example you see a situation where growth rates, which Westerners focused on, were seen to be a sign of health when in fact they were simply a solution to a problem of unemployment and underneath it the economy was quite unhealthy. This doesn’t mean that China doesn’t have a large economy, but having a large economy and being able to sustain healthy, balanced growth are two very different things.

Colin: Wouldn’t it be in the interests of both countries to find more common ground, perhaps to work together to make the Western Pacific a zone of peace involving Japan and other countries?

George: Well first of all, there is a zone of peace in that region. There’s no war going on. Secondly, the guarantor that it’s a zone of peace is the American 7th Fleet—the Chinese can’t do anything about it. As for tension bubbling about, so much of this is what I’ll call newspaper babble. Some minister or some secretary says something hostile, something is said—these are merely words. Here’s the underlying fact: China cannot sell the products it produces in China because over a billion people living in China live in absolute poverty and can’t buy it. They’re the hostage to European and American consumers, and their great fear is that those consumers, if they go into a recession, won’t buy those products. The problem the Chinese have is that they can’t invest their own money into the Chinese economy—there’s no room to put it, there aren’t enough workers, there’s not enough land and so on. So they have this massive hangover that they’re willing to invest in the world to get out of China. So there is a very good relationship between the United States and China. The Chinese get to sell products to the Americans; the Americans get these products. The problem the Chinese have is that their wage rates are now higher than those of other countries. It is cheaper to hire workers in Mexico today than in China. Their great historic advantage is dissolving yet they must continue to export. The American desire that the Chinese change the value of the yuan, that they float it, of course will never happen. The Chinese can’t afford to let that happen because of course that would make their exports even more expensive and place them in even more difficult trouble. So the United States enjoys jerking their chain by saying they should float the yuan. The Chinese respond saying that they will do that in a few years as soon as something else happens that’s unnamed. And the Chinese condemn the United States for their naval activities, and all of these are words. These two countries are locked together in a very beneficial relationship. In the long run it’s more beneficial to the United States than to the Chinese, and that’s one of the paradoxes. But again it takes a long time for people to realize that economies have failed or recovered. I remember back in 1993, people were still speaking about the Japanese super-state long after the banking system collapsed. One of the interesting things about the global financial community is that they always seem to be about two years behind reality, and the China situation is that they are in the midst of a massive slowdown. They’re admitting to a certain degree of slowdown—we suspect it’s much more substantial than that. In fact, given Chinese inflation rate, they may be entering negative territory. So this is a country that has had a magnificent run up in 30 years, it is going to be an important economic and military and political power over the next century but for right now it’s got problems.

If I was the United States, I would forge a closer understanding with the Chinese and seek to split the RICH alliance on economic lines between the petrostates and product exporters. RICH seems to me to be an alliance of convenience whereas the US-China trade dynamic seems to be more one of necessity. China simply put has nowhere else to turn to sell its wares. A squeeze would be uncomfortable for the US yet fatal for China. In fact, many East Asia experts believe that China could see massive unrest or even outright state collapse if it saw significant, long-term unemployment, which would almost certainly occur if tensions with the US went beyond words. For all the anger about skillful diplomacy, rightly placed in my view, it seems the breakdown in communications with China has been the most egregious. The West will never have any influence with Russia or Iran while they are raking in petrodollars. That's a simple fact. However, China is more like the United States and Europe than Russia or Iran, yet Washington squandered every opportunity. It really is unfortunate that things have needlessly gotten to this point.
Top

Post new topic  Post a reply
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Page 2 of 3 [ 21 posts ]
Previous topic | Next topic

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest





Search for
Jump to
 
cron